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Hey there, PokPok fam!

Coming into September, we expect some uncertainty. ⚡️ 

Get your portfolio ready, and have cash in hand — we’re in for a wild ride!

Have a great week! 🚀 

WHAT’S HAPPENING? ⌛️

• 📉 Is the market too complacent — was the “Black Monday” recovery too swift? 👀 

• BTC's Historical September Performance — Will This Kill Us? 😲 

• (September 6) Non-Farm Payrolls 🚨

• (September 6) Unemployment Rate 🚨

Coming up this week ⭐️ 

US Economic Events this week 📊 

(September 6) Non-Farm Payrolls & Unemployment Rate

• What this means: Non-farm payrolls is a key economic indicator that measures the number of jobs added or lost in the U.S. economy over the previous month, excluding farm workers. The Unemployment Rate is similarly, the amount of unemployment in the economy.

• Prior/Forecast:

  • NFP: 114K Prior / 165K Forecast

  • Unemployment: 4.3% Prior / 4.2% Forecast

• Bullish Thesis: With Interest Rate cuts confirmed for September and GDP Growth coming in at high levels, we’re looking for reports that suggest safe economic growth to prevent panic about the rate cuts due to an unstable economy. 🚀 🌙 

  • An under-expected unemployment rate 👇️ 

  • An over-expected NFP reading 👆️ 

  • These would make the Interest Rate cut more bullish as the stock market (and crypto) can continue its “bull run”

• Bearish Thesis: The converse would lead to worries of an unstable economy throughout the rate cut and may lead to flash crashes across the markets over the next few months. 🐻 

Is the market too complacent — was the “Black Monday” recovery too swift?

A bearish view of the next couple of months would be that the market remains greedy and the recovery from the Japanese Carry Trade crash, namely “Black Monday 2024”, was too fast.

See below the Volatility Index which has already come down from its extremes.

It seems like the Stock market has already forgotten the mass panic last month as the SP500 seeks new highs.

The question is: Is the market shakeout over yet, or is it just beginning?

We think with the importance of the US Elections, the stock market may be forced into a bubble and that the real “flush outs” may not have occurred yet.

This is why we say, always maintain cash reserves — despite our short-term views on what’s next in the market, there’s always the likelihood of impending flash crashes which pose opportunities.

While the stock market “bubble” doesn’t exactly translate into crypto as the SP500 currently has a negative correlation (~-0.24) against BTC (100 Day Avg), a significant crash such as last month’s will have an impact for sure.

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BTC's Historical September Performance — Will This Kill Us? 😲 

There has been a massive craze looking for BTC’s average performance during historical September months.

Let’s just say it hasn’t performed too well…

September has a mean historical average of -4.51%, the lowest of all months.

Why is this? 

During the summer periods, the crypto market is manipulated by algorithms as hot pocket traders are on holiday.

Given summer’s avg. returns, we tend to increase by ~9% during July/August.

In September, the big boys come back to trade, often in profit. As there’s more liquidity in the market, BTC tends to retrace to pre-summer levels to regain stability.

Towards the end of the year, our cumulative (geometric) average is +90.4% for Oct/Nov/Dec.

Are we looking for the same behaviour this year?

Maybe. However, as this is an election year, the market may seem more resilient.

Also, we didn’t have any “gains” over the summer, so there’s NOTHING to retrace.

We believe that September may be a ranging month due to market uncertainty and increased liquidity from big players, which may lead to flash crashes, however, we don’t see this being much of a red month.

We posted this on X the other day — we’ll be discussing this in our Premium Strategy Update next! 🔥 

PokPok’s $PEGG “Golden” Egg Debut 🐔 

This week, PokPok’s $PEGG token will be unleashed, with PEGG/ETH liquidity pools on Aerodrome (Base). 🔥

Tago Research is super excited for this reveal, stay up to date by following @pokpok_io on X!

The incentives on the Liquidity pool are going to be HOT, with large APRs for early providers. 🥵

Not only that, the PokPok team are introducing Revenue Sharing on their Options Protocol, through the burning of $PEGG tokens. 👀 

Now this is a token with real intrinsic value, based on the underlying protocol cash flow!

This is all in preparation for PokPok’s Main Protocol launch this September!

Get more details on the $PEGG token on PokPok’s Official Information Page.

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