What’s up everyone, welcome back to the PokPok Pulse!

We hope your week has been fantastic! Prices have been red for the past few days; we’re not worried! We’re here to clear things up! 🤘 

This week’s Juice 🧃

• September Interest Rate Ease now @ 100% probability 🔥 

• Ethereum Spot ETF Volume @ ~1B daily and Net Outflows @ -$179.1M 🔷 

• Economy: GDP Growth QoQ Adv over expected by 0.8% @ 2.8% 🏦 

• Economy: Core PCE Index MoM over expected by 0.1% @ 0.2% 🏦 

• BTC Nashville | Saylor says: “US Govt. should own the majority of BTC”

Getting up to speed! ⭐

US Fed Interest Rate Pivot + Economic Reports 📉 

Given recent data — the US Fed has a 100% probability of easing in September, with an 88% chance of a 25bps ease. 👀 

This is massive as it increases the likelihood of an altcoin season in crypto in H2 2024 as there is more liquidity in the market and investors are more likely to take risk and leverage. 🚀

Below are the main key economic reports for this week. These are crucial in understanding the potential future interest rate pivots in September.

The worse the outlook on the economy, the more likely we have a faster pivot.

Ethereum Spot ETF Update 🔹 

We’re four days in the Ethereum Spot ETF and so far so good! There have been mentions that the ETF isn’t seeing as much demand as BTC ETF, however, we would disagree on that end!

Ethereum is ~29% the size of BTC in terms of market cap, so a performance relative to this would be more insightful. ETH ETF has seen ~$1B in daily volume since launch. The average of the first 3 days of the BTC ETF was $3.2B in daily volume. This shows that ETF has performed ~31.3% relative to BTC — an extremely positive result! 🔥 

Currently, we’re seeing outflows, similar to the BTC ETF launch. As expected, these are only from the Grayscale ETF as standard Spot ETFs will be more favourable to use than ETHE. This is nothing to be concerned about, we should be looking forward to the next few months when initial ETHE outflows calm down.

Current Highlights: BTC Nashville Conference 🥇 

• "I put most of my wealth into Bitcoin. I am fully committed." - Robert F. Kennedy Jr. 🚀 

• “US Gov. should own the majority of BTC” - Michael Saylor

• VanEck CEO reveals holding over 30% of his net worth in BTC

So far — we’re getting some great people advocating for the rumoured BTC Reserve Strategy. 👀

We’re waiting for Saturday to see our hopes revealed as Trump takes the stage to make his speech. We’ll touch on this again on Monday!

Market Analysis ✨

Things have been red in the past few days — let’s take a deep dive into what’s to come!

BTC Analysis

Despite BTC’s rejection from breaking 68k, we see a lot of support at the previous local high (~63.8k) given the sudden bounce-back in the past 48 hours.

We’re looking for continued support now at the range POC (~67k) to pivot and break out towards 69.7k.

Currently, we’ve got a lot of negative delta (more shorts/less longs) coming in compared to the past low at 67k, causing a bearish divergence. This shows that Biden's dropping out of the race has caused some uncertainty.

To have a safe breakout, we should range between 66-68k until we see some more delta coming in to show demand for BTC at these prices.

On the other hand, we’ve got over $1B of liquidations over 68k which may be a source of liquidity for Delta to come in. In a more swift scenario, we would be looking at making sure enough volume & delta are coming in for it to be a breakout, not a fakeout!

Overall, we’re pretty bullish for the next few weeks as BTC continues to gear up towards a breakout of over 73k. Considering potential events in the coming two months, it’s nothing short of exciting! 🔥 

Ethereum Analysis

A quick one for Ethereum — we are discounting most of the moves over the next couple of weeks due to the impact the Spot ETF has caused. Markets aren’t behaving normally, and anyone who was around when the BTC Spot ETF was released can agree with this!

ETH seems to have come to an intermediary support level for the past move from 2,900 to 3,500. We may see some ranging between 3,200 and 3,400 before moving higher.

A loss of the supported 3,100 level by having a daily close below it would be a cause for concern towards further downside.

We track a Monthly VWAP (volume weighted average price) for Ethereum and mark a “naked” level at the end of each month (on chart @ 3,600). It happens that the Monthly VWAP of a crypto like ETH has a high probability of retracing to that level before the end of the month.

Because of this, we still see that within the next week, we may retrace to 3,600. Got your mind on shorting ETH? Maybe hold the trigger for a little while.

TOTAL3 Analysis (Altcoins)

TOTAL3 is the market cap index for cryptocurrencies excluding Bitcoin and Ethereum. This gives us an insight into how Altcoins are performing and how we might position ourselves in the market.

It looks like the altcoin market is getting ready to blast off as we find support at a key monthly level a break of this recent high would mean a change in trend for altcoins.

However, so far, we’ve been in a downward trend, which means there is still potential for altcoin bleeding against BTC.

We can see this all relative to BTC below — clearly, there’s a consistent trend in the past 2 YEARS where alts have been bleeding against BTC!

How would we get this to change and turn the switch on for altcoin season?

A break of a previous high, in this case, looking at the 10.6M level. The moment this happens we’re popping champagne!

Until then… we need to focus on Investment Strategy to build up our portfolios (and not get bled out)!

Get Access to PokPok’s Alpha 👀 

We’ve got some special news. With PokPok’s Alpha Testing coming up, you can earn $POK points as you stake ETH on farm.pokpok.io.

The more you stake, the more $POK you get 🔥 

You also need to stake ETH on the dashboard to qualify for Alpha Testing, so get your ETH on there before the slots fill up!

Investment Strategy 📈

Investment Strategy is the most important part of your portfolio. If you don’t have a strategy, you’re going to fall off a cliff.

We’ve been developing an indicator for efficient portfolio allocations in bull/bear markets. We call it the TAGO Ratio. (Still being developed but we’d love to show you some snips)

Essentially, go risk-on when the market is good; and accumulate with risk-off gains when the market is red.

Below we’ve got a BTC Chart with the TAGO Ratio — 0.3 is a neutral level, anywhere above is “bullish” and below is “bearish” (to make it simple).

The interesting thing is pivots between the levels on the ratio can signal price movements over long periods. We briefly entered bear market territory, but it looks like we are soon to find support at the neutral level. This means we could have a multi-month rally coming ahead for BTC and Crypto!

How does this come into Strategy?

The past few months have been consistently worse to invest in for crypto. You should have focused on de-risking and accumulating towards a long-term portfolio. Until now, as things may change.

You need to have a plan on when to go risk-on and when to de-risk, by splitting your portfolio into types of investment — one of the key features of the “Personal Hedge Fund”.

We’ve prepared a rough idea of what your portfolio structure may look like. We’ll go into more detail in the future, but it’s something for you to start thinking about now.

Key Ideas:

• Allocating a specific % of the portfolio to different risk factors, hedging, stablecoins

• Keeping off of Futures/Leverage trading during unfavourable markets

DeFi & Yield Farming 🚜🥛

Yield Farming is one of the key components of a good portfolio. It allows you to put your money to work and earn despite market volatility. We want to invest in chains that are performing well in protocols to capitalise on Volume and excess Demand.

Chain Performance

• Top TVL moving towards Solana, Arbitrum, Base and Avalanche

• Base has been a key focus for us at Tago Research for the past few months as it gains traction over time

Yield Farming Opportunities

As our current focus has been on Base, we’ll give you a couple of opportunities on how you can put your money to work!

1. High Risk/High Yield

• We’ve been farming in the ETH/ELS pool on ExtraFi for the past 4 months and have been getting some crazy returns. We’re accumulating Ethlas’s $ELS token for the long term.

• You can leverage ExtraFi and earn even larger yields, however, if you don’t know what you’re doing — we’d advise against it!

2. Medium Risk

• Better than your ETH Restaking, a Full-Range ETH/USDC pool on Base will get you some decent returns in the long run

• Allows you to capitalise from ETH upside this bull run while mitigating the risk of entering altcoins too much

3. Stablecoin/Low Risk

• Stablecoin Yield has been extremely popular recently.

• On ExtraFi, you can lend USD+ and earn ~30% APY (imagine your bank ever offering you that)

Useful tools

• https://krystal.app/ (Decentralised Liquidity Explorer, discovery Yield Opportunities)

• https://vfat.io/ (Yield Aggregator and Portfolio Manager)

Altcoin Zone 🪙

We’re still working on our Altcoin Zone and should be publishing a section next week!

For our altcoin analysis, we want your feedback on which altcoins or sectors you’re most interested in. This allows us to prioritise your interests and find the best opportunities around!

From next week:

• Token Unlocks

• News Highlights

• VC Investment Highlights

• Altcoin Picks

• Altcoin Technical Analysis

We’ll be adding some SWEET bonuses soon if you share Pulse with a friend!

Why don’t you get a head start? 😉 

Disclaimer: The PokPok Pulse newsletter and any curated information provided by Tago Research are not intended as Financial Advice but as educational content for insights into the crypto market. Only invest what you can afford to lose. We are not liable for any losses incurred.