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Good Morning, everyone! We hope you’re having a fantastic Monday morning. 😁 

We’ve got a big week ahead, which is why you must stay ahead of the market.

The most important thing going on is the Fed Rate Cut, which we’ve been blabbering on about for the past two months now.

It’s now or never. While the next period may be tough on the market, it may allow for immense opportunity. 🚀 

Let’s check it out together 👇️ 

WHAT’S HAPPENING? ⌛️

• STRATEGY: Can we predict what the Interest Rate Cut will do to the market? 🧐 

• PokPok Protocol hosts Base HackerHouse + OKX Sponsor (platform launch?) 🔥

• (September 18) Fed Interest Rate Decision 🚨🚨🚨

• (September 18) FOMC Conference 🚨🚨

• (September 17) Retail Sales MoM 🚨

Coming up this week ⭐️ 

US Economic Events this week 📊 

(September 18) Fed Interest Rate Decision + FOMC Conference

The big week. On Wednesday, we’re going to see our first Interest Rate cut in years!

This not only changes the orientation of the world economy but also the way the markets act (whether that be crypto or stocks).

The market likes to have a massive shake when things like this happen. There’s so much uncertainty and difference in opinion that there are multiple drivers in the markets.

You might see this as a money printer go brrr scenario, while others see it as the Fed is cutting because the Economy has gone to the dump scenario. (Because that’s usually what happens).

That’s why, as a basic briefing for the next few weeks, it doesn’t work to just assume that price will trend up or down, you need to actively react to key levels in the market and demand through delta longs/shorts.

A final reference to what the predicted rate cuts are:

• 59% for a 50bps cut

• 41% for a 25bps cut

Over the weekend, we’ve somehow sided towards 50bps by a few percent. In our opinion, we think this whole thing is 50% at the moment as there will be high volatility in these predictions until Wednesday.

It does not matter what the rate cut announcement is. There will still be a high-impact panic in the markets and it will be traded the same.

Why is this?

Because there is no surprise in the market anymore, it’s a matter of when not if.

However…

A 50bps cut could be seen as a more “urgent” cut which may spike recession worries in the market. This is likely the one we’d be on the lookout for as it could cause wilder movements in crypto and stocks.

And the FOMC Conference?

The FOMC Conference, also on Wednesday, will give an insight into further reasoning for the Interest Rate cut.

As mentioned, a 50bps cut may cause a little worry for the economy. But if the Fed seems positive about it, any worries may be alleviated.

Then, we’ll also get some insight into what might be happening over the next couple of Interest Rate Decision events towards the end of the year. So far predictions suggest further cuts, but we’d rather rely on Fed speeches than simply projections.

It’s that simple.

(September 17) Retail Sales MoM

Yes, this is the final major economic report before the Interest Rate decision. This will not make a huge impact for Wednesday, but, we think it’s important for you to keep up to date with these readings so you have a feel for the state of the US Economy.

However, this will certainly make an impact on November’s decision.

• What this means: Retail Sales give an insight into Consumer spending (which accounts for ~70% of the GDP). It gives an insight into the health of the economy and any inflationary pressures regarding consumers. Stronger Retail Sales may strengthen the dollar and make crypto less valuable, however, may lead to a more risk-accepting economy (in the Long Term).

• Prior/Forecast:

  • Retail Sales MoM: 1.0% Prior / 0.2% Forecast

• Bullish Thesis: Despite the potential short-term impact of positive Retail Sales, we want to focus on Economic health + Institutional investment. We’re likely to have this by having an over-expected reading. 🚀 🌙 

• Bearish Thesis: The converse would lead to a weaker dollar, perhaps minor price increases for crypto in the short term, however may do more harm in the coming months around Interest Rate decision events. 🐻 

The Stock Market (our key levels) 📈 

We’ve had a volatile few weeks for the stock market, too!

While we’re not making an in-depth analysis on this today, we think it’s important that you’re able to see our key levels for long/short opportunities.

We’re expecting this week’s price action to trade between 5400 → 5800 as we see higher volatility and potentially a blow-off top for the stock market.

This could lead to some very good short trades!

PokPok hosts Base HackerHouse | Launch around the corner 🚀 🐔 

PokPok is preparing its main platform launch (expected this week). We’ve been anticipating this for months now. Frankly, the PokPok Protocol is a massive gamechanger in the Options space, so keep an eye out!

PokPok is hosting the Base HackerHouse this week at Token2049 in Singapore! 🧨 

We expect the platform launch to be unveiled at this event. If you’re in Singapore, it’s definitely worth checking out!

PokPok is also sponsoring OKX at Token2049. If this doesn’t bring some eyes to PokPok, we’re not sure what will! 👀 

If you’re looking to get a head start on the platform, check our the $PEGG token which launched recently. This is the key token which drives the PokPok economy, and we’re expecting things to get feisty after launch. 🐺

A $PEGG Chart Reminder

$PEGG has finished its initial “price discovery” and looks more balanced now. We’ll be doing a more in-depth analysis shortly after launch, however, we think that if you’re looking to invest in the PokPok Protocol, now would be the time to buy $PEGG.

PokPok will have profit sharing on their $PEGG token. As soon as the platform launches, this is a value proposition that will not go unnoticed…

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A Quick Strategy Update 💆

👇️ Recap of Friday’s Market Analysis & Key Levels below 👇️

Highlights

1. We’ll be closing the majority of our active longs if we have a 4H close below 56.7k (strict events call for strict measures)

2. Looking for longs: 50k and lower 👆️ 

3. Looking for shorts: (mostly) 64k and higher👇️ 

BTC Summary

• Weekly Targets 👆️ 64.6k, 67k, 68.3k

• Weekly Target 👇️ 57.9k, 56.7k, 56k, 50.75k

• We’re staying away from entering new positions unless we are hitting these target levels.

ETH Summary

• Weekly Targets 👆️ 2360, 2440, 2600

• Weekly Targets 👇️ 2225, 2120

• We’re not impressed with ETH/BTC performance. We maintain some ETH long positions open, however due to high-impact events coming up, we are considering converting this to BTC to preserve capital.

We’ll be adding some SWEET bonuses soon if you share Pulse with a friend!

Why don’t you get a head start? 😉 

Disclaimer: The PokPok Pulse newsletter and any curated information provided by Tago Research are not intended as Financial Advice but as educational content for insights into the crypto market. Only invest what you can afford to lose. We are not liable for any losses incurred.