🧠 Happy Friday, PokPok fam!

We're thrilled to bring you the latest edition of the PokPok Pulse.

This week has been nothing short of incredible, and we can't wait to share some exciting updates with you. 🔥 

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This Week’s Juice 🧃

• Bitcoin Dominance hits Macro Highs @ 56.5% 🚀 eyes on 60% 👀 

• The path for the Fed Rate cut is all clear! Potential hard cuts ahead 🛠️ 🛣️ 

• Economy: Unemployment Rate over expected by 0.2% 🔥 @ 4.3% 🏦 

• Economy: Non-Farm Payrolls under expected by 61K 🐔 @ 114K 🏦 

• US Gov. moves $2B of BTC this week after Bitcoin Reserve Bill 👀 

Getting up to speed! ⭐

US Fed Interest Rate Pivot + Economic Reports 📉 

Here are the main key economic reports for this week. The worse we get — the harder the pivot.

Given the results of economic reports in the past couple of weeks and today, the probabilities of a harder rate cut have shifted significantly!

This is how fast things change! We’ve now got a 70.5% chance of getting a 50bps rate cut in September, which is massive.

Put your bull hats on boys, this Winter’s got some liquidity! 🥳 

Ethereum Spot ETF Update 🔹 

Key Points:

• Volume has cooled off in the past few days — averaging ~$400M. As mentioned before, this is not a key indicator of demand (yet) as we’d need to gather a bit more data.

• What we do know is net flows are looking a bit more green with ETHE outflows cooling off — 1 August being the lowest outflow for ETHE @ $78M.

US Gov. starts to move BTC

The US government had ~$2B Bitcoin transferred from its wallet, following the Bitcoin Reserve Bill proposal, which has sparked speculation about its potential impact on the already challenging crypto market. While the bill, if passed, would authorize repurchasing the sold Bitcoin, the short-term selling pressure may compound the ongoing Mt. Gox distribution effect.

Market Analysis ✨

BTC Dominance

BTC Dominance reaches new highs since April 2021 @ ~56.5%. We’re looking at a potential increase to 60% as we lead into September’s rate cut.

What does this mean for crypto and alts?

As BTC Dominance increases, capital flows remain flowing out of alts and into BTC (or USDT, see chart below).

The crypto market is still against going full risk-on, however, the desperation for profits continues with memecoins taking the limelight (for now).

Alts will continue to bleed until after the cut, which is why it’s extremely difficult to place any long-term or leveraged positions in alts at the moment.

Eyes on any alt longs at all times 👀 

BTC Analysis

In our strategy section on Monday, we mentioned looking at BTC making an SFP of the ~63k level as the next potential entry for longs.

Turns out, we had this play through yesterday: a take of the previous ATH lacking in delta to the upside and a swing failure, quite smoothly to ~62.5k.

Just before posting this, we’ve got another sweep to the local low and a chunk of negative delta (longs liquidating & shorts opening) — we’d be looking at having a Swing Failure of the 62.2k low (test just below the low and bounce) and if there’s a good reaction, retake 67k as the next target.

We may well not even have a swing failure and continue to the upside as we’ve already gotten a lot of long liquidations on today’s market reaction for Unemployment & Non-Farm Payroll. For this reason, I’d say any open longs to not panic just yet.

However, if we do lose 62.7k and close below, we may look to come even lower, potentially going into the 50s.

It does seem like we’re getting some leveraged shorts coming at these levels which might be taken out.

Any longs open should check the delta at 67k. If there is little buying demand, it may be a good time to take a profit, however, the next target after that would be our 70k high again.

Ethereum Analysis

Ethereum has been significantly underperforming BTC during the past few days, making new lows.

• Targetting 2,925 → 2,850 for ETH as a potential low and long opportunity (line in the sand to not break)

• Primarily due to ETF Outflows and its volatility — nothing to be worried about at the moment

• Increases in BTC dominance may have led to ETH sell-offs too

Altcoin Analysis

• TOTAL3 representing altcoins signals a further bleeding of alts over the next few weeks (TOTAL3 against BTCUSD continues its downtrend)

• We advise caution on longing altcoins due to their further underperformance against BTC over the next couple of months leading to mid-September.

• Target: ~540B as a potential bounce back for TOTAL3, however will likely range up to November without significant movement.

• Target: ~8.9M for TOTAL3/BTCUSD to watch out for potential back in altcoin dominance.

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