🧠 Happy Friday, PokPok fam!

We’ve had a choppy week. 🦈 

With volatility still high, and entries pretty rough, let’s figure out what’s happening next.🔥 

This Week’s Juice 🧃

• 🪓 A choppy week as the market consolidates recent volatility 👀 

• 🪙 Gold hits a new all-time-high over 2,500 as BTC lags (for now!)🚀 

• 🏦 Economy: PPI MoM @ 0.1% (expected 0.2%) 🚀 

• 🏦 Economy: Core Inflation YoY @ 3.2% (expected 3.2%) / Inflation YoY @ 2.9% (expected 3%) 🚀 

• 🏦 Economy: Retail Sales MoM @ 1% (expected 0.3%)

Getting up to speed!🏃 

Economic Reports 📉 

We’ve had a big stack of reports this week, let’s go over the highlights and what they mean.

Rate Cut Probabilities

The market recovery in the past couple of weeks (such as Retail Sales) is reflected in the current Rate Cut probabilities for September.

A few weeks ago we had over 70% probability of a 50bps cut in September but now…

~25% probability of 50bps rate cut

~75% probability of a 25bps rate cut

(with further rate cuts in November and December)

Gold hits new ATH as Bitcoin lags behind 👀 

• BTC has a 0.72 (positive) correlation to Gold (using a 180-day period)

• With recent Gold surges to all-time-highs, we can expect BTC to follow in the next couple of months

• Especially with rate cuts coming through in September, we can look at similar effects of BTC breaking ATHs in the next few months

• Note: This is just an assumption as we extrapolate from the relationship.

Market Analysis ✨

This week has been pretty choppy as the market consolidates recent volatility (as expected) — we’re looking ahead to next month for any potential significant moves, however, it’s important we maintain our key levels to the downside.

Tago Ratio Update: Current “consolidation” can be seen on our indicator as the market is unsure where to move next. Our centre reference line is our “bull market” reference. A rejection of this reference point would lead us to further derisking our portfolios until next year.

BTC Dominance

• We’ve been awaiting BTC dominance to reach ~59-60% for the past few weeks

• Currently, the trend is still up as we focus our short-term trading on BTC rather than altcoins which may be hedged towards bleeding further

BTC Analysis

• We’ve formed a range between 56k-62k as the market consolidates

• Delta has been negative over the past few days signalling shorting in this range and being bought up by limit buy orders to maintain price. (potential squeeze above the highs or exhaustion towards the downside)

• We want to see a long delta at these levels to trigger a squeeze, otherwise, we may look at chopping further into the weekend.

• In the current market, we recommend against opening long positions other than at our key levels as stop-losses may be placed at unfavourable prices.

Looking at the upside 📈 🚀 

• We can see excessive shorting through billions in liquidations at ~60k and ~62k. These are potential levels to watch for short squeezes to the upside.

• Yesterday, we hit a low at a confluence level which gives us high confidence this may be the low for the next few days.

• Primary Targets 👆️ @ 61.75k and current high @ 62.75k as we see the market reaction. (considering closing positions or opening shorts if there’s a lack in demand higher (delta/buy volume) marking an SFP.

• Key Resistance Levels (repeat): 64.6k, 67k, 68.3k, 69.7k 🚀 

• Make sure you take profits on longs. Don’t be greedy. We’re watching you! 👀 

Looking at the downside 📉 👀 

• Value Area Low (VAL) @ 56.25k remains a pivotal level to maintain (we will begin to scale out of short-term longs if we break this level)

• Low target if we break below VAL ➡️ 53k (potential long)

• Lower Targets (and long opportunities) 👇️ 48.9k, 44k, 41.6k (repeated)

• Reminder: The market remains in a medium time-frame downtrend, ensure any short-term longs have clear stop-losses to prevent unexpected losses or liquidations!

Ethereum Analysis

• Ethereum has attempted to break to the upside ahead of BTC over the past few days, however continues to underperform BTC.

• We’re looking at potential Spot accumulation of BTC in this range and at lows for potential breakouts next week.

• We are expecting a potential further drop of ETH over the next few days (marking a potential low) @ 2450-2500 👀 

• Key Levels to the Upside 👆️ @ 2750, 2900, 3318, 3535

• Key Levels to the Downside 👇️@ 2450, 2300, 2200, 2100, 1950

Altcoin Analysis

• We continue to eye TOTAL3/BTCUSD performance (Alts against BTC) as a potential reversal may be cooking! 🍳🔥 

• As we look at our investment strategy, we will adjust our allocations towards altcoins/high-risk investments as we see fit

• Buying up oversold altcoins is more important than we might have thought if altcoins begin to outperform BTC! Keep an eye out; and get ready. 👀 

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