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Hey there, folks! We hope you’re having a great Monday. 🐔

A week away from Quantitative Easing, things may get pretty spicy in the crypto world.

We’ve brought you a few hot topics today and a quick update on our key levels and blue-chip strategy for the week.

Well, what are you waiting for? Dig right in!

WHAT’S HAPPENING? ⌛️

• 💼 BTC’s Institutional Interest Despite Retail’s Fear 👀 

• ♦️ Is the Ethereum Spot ETF dead? 👀 

• ⛰️ Is Bitcoin a mature market yet?

• 🏦 (September 11) Inflation Rate (Core) MoM, YoY 🔺

• 🏦 (September 12) PPI MoM 🔺

Coming up this week ⭐️ 

Ethereum Spot ETF — Key Update 🎇

• Daily Flows: We’re not impressed with the current flows of the ETF. Clearly, there has been a lack of enthusiasm in either the ETH or due to uncertain market conditions, people are abstaining from entering the market.

• Volume Traded: The Volume is not so bad, sitting at ~$150M daily, however, when we put this relative to BTC’s volume, we’re sitting at ~9% of the volume, compared to ETH’s ~25% M.Cap size against BTC. That’s a 64% underperformance.

• There have been significant worries regarding the future of Ethereum’s price performance, especially how much of the on-chain TVL is moving onto Layer 2’s where we will see much less fees collected for the chain.

• We might have to analyse this under better market conditions, but we’re starting to see the possibility of continuous ETH underperformance against BTC and altcoins in the future.

• If Ethereum continues like this coming into the new year of 2025, we’d be sad to say that it might not exactly be seen as the most attractive institutional asset yet. This would pave the way for new competitors to come along such as Solana, which could well take the smart-chain crown.

US Economic Events this week 📊 

(September 11) Core Inflation Rate (MoM/YoY)

• Prior/Forecast (Core YoY): 2.9% Prior / 2.6% Forecast (Non-Core, no forecast for core)

• Bullish Thesis: A heavy forecast for the month on inflation predicts at least a 0.3% annualised drop. A week out from Rate Cuts, this will likely have the largest impact on confidence in taking risks of larger interest rate cuts. We’d like to see an under-expected reading for this to be bullish towards the 2% Fed target.

• Bearish Thesis: Conversely, an over-expected reading above 2.6% would be seemingly bearish, however, at the moment, any decrease in the inflation rate is beneficial.

Keep an eye on the Core YoY readings as these are more significant than others.

(September 12) PPI MoM

• What PPI MoM means: Producer Price Index (Month-over-Month) is a key economic indicator measuring the change in selling prices received by domestic producers for their output. It provides insight into inflation trends at the wholesale level and is often considered a leading indicator for consumer price changes and potential shifts in monetary policy.

• Prior/Forecast:

  • PPI: 0.1% Prior / 0.2% Forecast

• Bullish Thesis: Favouring under-expected results for price index-related readings ahead of the rate cut.

BTC’s Institutional Interest Despite Retail’s Fear 👀 

Institutions such as the Zurich Cantonal Bank, which manages over $290B have started offering BTC. This is in addition to other institutions across the world which have started transacting with Bitcoin aside from the Spot ETFs.

You might expect such volatility in the past months to put off institutions from further diving into the crypto realm, but you’d be wrong! It seems that it’s the volatility that is beginning to attract companies now, and the potential for large returns.

So, with a Fear & Greed Index of 26, and consistent institutional investment, why is the market still struggling?

The next few months connect the crypto market with the US market like never before.

We’re going through key events such as elections and quantitative easing measures which have a massive effect on the economy.

There are risks of potential hard landings and recessions to come.

From a macro analysis perspective, Bitcoin is a steal right now for Spot entries, however, for short-term positions, it’s uncertain, especially when high-impact events can invalidate any analysis you’ve just made.

So why are investment firms pushing to accept Bitcoin now?

1. Future preparation for better market conditions

2. They take on little risk from accepting Bitcoin, they only care about the fee they earn. 👀 

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A peek at the maturity of the Bitcoin market

Yes, we’re only looking at the Bitcoin market. It’s safe to say that other than Bitcoin and Ethereum, there are no other winners here for a “mature” market.

Is Bitcoin a mature market?

The post above from Cory Bates has talked about how due to Bitcoin’s 24/7 trading nature, it has achieved more trading hours than the Equities stock market within the past 14 years.

All markets tend to reach a mature state at some point, due to increased market participants, volatility decreases vastly compared to the early years of the market.

On the left side of the curve, we have memecoins that go up 100% (and down 100%), whereas we have markets such as the property market, which hardly move at all (in terms of volatility).

The simple answer is No.

Despite Bitcoin trading more than the equities market, it is a pin-drop in market participants compared to equities. Bitcoin holds a ~1% market share of wealth in the world and (likely) a representative 1% of the population might hold it.

A mature market occurs when downside volatility is and potential growth is limited. However, this doesn’t stop market crashes from happening.

We all know that investing in the SP500 will only yield you so much, and it’s a pretty safe bet, even at current highs, if there’s a crash, you know that in a couple of years, you will be up again. 👀 

Bitcoin isn’t like that yet. But will it ever “mature” like we say?

This is difficult to say. Bitcoin is not yet attached to any economy directly, it’s actually competing against economies such as the US Dollar.

Meaning, that the instability of the US Dollar would also result in the instability of Bitcoin (and everything else that is priced by the dollar).

Not until we gain “full” adoption for Bitcoin to be used in day-to-day trading such as supermarkets and business transactions, we won’t reach a mature market for a currency, it is mostly used as a speculative investment.

This might take 20-30 years, but is important for Bitcoin to stand as a key currency in the world economy.

As governments begin to incorporate it in their business trading or federal reserves, this will start to take shape.

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